New research results indicate Alberta's grizzly bear population is precarioiusly small

The latest phase of Alberta's grizzly bear population census indicates the population is less than half the size it was estimated to be in 2002 – which means less than 500 grizzly bears in the entire province.

According to the cutting-edge, DNA-based population estimate that was conducted by the Foothills Model Forest, there are approximately 90 grizzlies between Highway 1 and Highway 3, 45 between Highway 1 and Highway 11 = 45 (range 41-52), and 43 between Highway 11 and Highway 16. This brings the number of bears in the southern half of the province, the best grizzly bear habitat in the entire province, to only 177 bears.

We don’t yet know how many grizzly bears there are north of highway 16, but given what we do know, as described in the bulleted points below, we’ll be lucky to find another 100 bears up there.

• Grizzly bear densities are so low in this area that the study methods used in the south half of the province will not work . In fact, researchers don’t yet know how to get a good population estimate for an area with such low grizzly bear density.
• Efforts to collar bears in this area in 2006 met with very little success. Researchers caught mostly black bears in their traps and, when you catch black bears, it means there aren’t any grizzlies around.
• The area does not have a lot of good habitat for grizzly bears.

We also won’t know for another year how many grizzly bears there are south of Highway 3 but, given it is a relatively small area with ranches spreading right out to the mountains, we’ll be lucky to find 50 bears in this area. 
 
Given the 177 grizzlies in the south half of the province, an additional 150 bears estimated to exist in the un-measured areas of the province, the entire provincial population is very likely less than 500 bears. 

Summary of  Alberta Grizzly Bear Population Estimates

2002
Government estimates that the total number of grizzly bears in Alberta (provincial lands and national parks) is 1000  (including 180 from national parks in Alberta).

2003
Government report finds flaws with previous model used to provide 2002 estimate; new estimate in this report is 500 grizzlies on provincial lands (680 including national parks).

2004
Provincial recovery team adopts expert opinion that there are fewer than 700 grizzly bears total in all of Alberta.

2005
DNA data for first two phases of provincial study show 42 grizzlies occupying habitat between highways 11 and 16, and 45 occupying habitat between highways 1 and 11.

2007
DNA data for area between highways 1 and 3 shows 90 bears.

How Alberta determines status of wildlife:

• IUCN (World Conservation Union Criteria for Listing Species) criteria used by Alberta’s Endangered Species Conservation Committee (ESCC) and  the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC).
• IUCN criteria is based on number of mature breeding individuals in the population.
• The number of mature breeding individuals is estimated to be ½ the total population size, therefore in Alberta we have less than 250 mature breeding grizzly bears (based on total population size of less than 500).
• IUCN criteria state that if number of mature breeding individuals is less than 1000 population considered "threatened." If the numbers is less than 250, the population is considered "endangered."

                                                                                                 
 Alberta’s Endangered Species Conservation Committee recommended the grizzly bear be listed as a threatened species in 2002, when they believed the population was 1000 strong (500 mature breeding individuals.) 

Secrecy surrounds grizzly bear management in Alberta

Important information supporting the suspension of Alberta’s spring grizzly bear hunt is being kept from the public. With a decision on the hunt due at the end of the month, conservation groups are concerned that the government will allow the hunt to proceed again this year.

One of the documents being kept from the public is the draft Grizzly Bear Recovery Plan. The plan, which recommends the suspension of the hunt, is still under review and has yet to be accepted and released despite being in the government’s hands for over a year.

But there is more critical information being withheld according to Dr. Tracey Henderson, program director with the Grizzly Bear Alliance. “The government now has very accurate DNA-based, grizzly bear population estimates for large areas of the province, which they are refusing to release publicly,” says Dr. Henderson. Her group and the Jasper Environmental Association have both tried unsuccessfully, via the provincial Freedom of Information Act, to access the data. They have also been denied access to total grizzly bear mortality numbers for 2005, information that has always been readily accessible in the past.

The government’s DNA-based population studies covered the area between highways 1 and 16 and carried a provincial tax dollar price tag of three quarters of a million dollars.

Conservationists allege that if these population estimates were higher than expected, that good news story would have been released right away. But the fact that the data, some of which have been complete for almost a year, have been withheld from the public, strongly suggests population numbers are lower than previously thought.

Prior to these latest secret population estimates, a government commissioned study released in 2003 estimated the population of grizzly bears on provincial lands to be just over 500 (which meant about 700 grizzlies total in the province adding those found in Alberta’s National Parks.) An error was found in that study, the model was re-run in early 2005, but the government has also refused to release this information to the public.

“They don’t want the public to know what a sorry state our grizzly bear population is in” says Jim Pissot with Defenders of Wildlife Canada. “As long as they keep things quiet, they can continue to allow the spring hunt and encourage the ongoing destruction of grizzly bear habitat in the name of short term economic gain.”

In 2002 the government’s Endangered Species Conservation Committee (ESCC) recommended the grizzly be listed as threatened and the hunt suspended. Since that time the province’s own Grizzly Bear Recovery Team and thousands of Albertans have repeatedly asked for the suspension of the hunt and listing the species, while the government has repeatedly pointed to the inaccurate population estimates as a reason for inaction.

“We have better population data than ever before,” says Nigel Douglas Conservation Specialist with Alberta Wilderness Association. “It’s time to release it to the public and get serious about recovering the species. We need to suspend the hunt, list the grizzly bear as a threatened species, stop the ongoing destruction of grizzly bear habitat and implement the draft Grizzly Bear Recovery Plan in its entirety.”

For more information, click here.

Draft recovery plan set to go before the ESCC

The draft grizzly bear recovery plan has passed an initial review by the Alberta government and is on its way to the Endangered Species Conservation Committee for review. Will it pass muster? (To read a detailed analysis of the draft recovery plan, click here.)

Two years in the making, the draft recovery plan is the child of a multi-stakeholder committee that included representatives from the scientific and conservation committees (including a representative from the GBA) but was dominated by pro-industry representatives from government and the forestry and oil & gas industries. Although there are some excellent strategies in the plan, much is missing, and the lack of appropriate standards and measurements leaves the plan exceedingly weak.

The ESCC recommended in 2002 that the grizzly bear be listed as a threanten species, and that the hunt be immediately suspended. Once the ESCC reviews the draft , Minister of Sustainable Resource Development Dave Coutts will need to decide whether, and how much of it will be funded and implemented. The 1990 Grizzly Bear Management Plan, the last such management plan for grizzly bears in Alberta, has been virtually ignored for 15 years.

To read a detailed analysis of the draft recovery plan, click here.

Logging practices threaten grizzly survival in Alberta's Foothills Model Forest

A recent study by a doctoral student at the University of Alberta has found that current logging practices in the Foothills Model Forest near Hinton would eliminate grizzly bears from all of the study area that lies outside of Jasper National Park. Using extremely sophisticated computer models, Dr. Scott Nielsen found that the increased number of roads necessary to log the area would result in so many dead bears that the population would likely disappear within 50 years. Additional roads are also built to build and operate oil and gas wells in the area.

Scientific research indicates that because high road densities increase the number of people able to access grizzly bear habitat, they are also highly correlated with increased numbers of dead bears. Research indicates that road densities in excess of 0.6 km/sq. km usually result in unsustainable mortality rates that see grizzly bear populations decline and eventual disappear. Click here to read Dr. Nielsen's PhD dissertation.

BearSafe Program coming to Alberta

The Grizzly Bear Alliance has been awarded $20,000 by Alberta Ecotrust to bring an on-the-ground BearSafe Communitiies Program to Alberta. Starting in 2005, the GBA will research other "Bear Aware" programs and develop one that meets specific needs in Alberta. The GBA will then work with communities in priority areas to implement the BearSafe Program.

Bear-proofing communities in grizzly bear habitat is one of many recommendations of the draft recovery plan that was recently sent to the Minister of Sustainable Resource Development for approval. (See article below.) GBA hopes to be able to work with provincial and municipal governments and other stakeholders to make Alberta a safer place for both bears and people.

Similar programs have been effective in British Columbia, Ontario, the United States and Alberta's national parks to reduce the bear-human conflicts that have lead to hundreds of dead and dislocated bears. Stay tuned for more details.

As far as plans go, it's better than nothing

The Grizzly Bear Recovery Team has finalized a draft recovery plan for Alberta's grizzly bear population. Two years in the making, the plan is supposed to provide a recipe for ensuring the long-term persistence of a self-sustaining grizzly bear population in Alberta.

The draft plan will make its way to recently appointed SRD Minister Dave Coutts' desk, where he'll decide what to do with it. In Alberta, the minister is not obligated to adopt or implement recovery plans developed by recovery teams. It is up to his discretion whether to adopt and implement all or part of the plan. Coutts, who is new to the job, should have his hands full with this one.

While details will not be released for some time, a sneak peak indicates that the draft plan is pretty weak. But as one recovery team member was overheard saying, "It's better than nothing."

That remains to be seen.

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